Peak Oil, Cuba, and Transition Towns
I don't normally write these things. I wouldn't have written it if I didn't think it was important.
I not an expert. I have included links to the same places I have been getting my information. Read them please.
Peak Oil is when oil production reaches its highest rate. After peak oil, oil production decreases. I had heard about peak oil before. I thought about it as a good thing; oil prices would go up for a little bit until renewable energy became profitable and then everyone would drive electric cars and be happy. I hadn't realized that peak oil has many implications. That our current agricultural systems depend almost entirely on oil. That the difference in standard of living between the United States and the rest of the world is created by our artificial lowering of oil prices. Its very easy to realize this from Brazil
This article is on peak oil:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
Predictions for when peak oil will occur range anywhere from that it has already occurred in 2007 (it takes at least 5 years of hindsight to confirm peak oil) to the 2025 prediction made by peak oil. What is important is the estimates for when global demand will surpass supply. The United States Department of Energy predicts that this will occur in 2015. The effects on the economy will be similar to when demand surpassed supply during the oil crises of the 70's, the difference is that the situation will not get better but instead gradually worse. Suburbs will become the slums of the future. In 2005 the USDE released the Hirsch report. It pretty much says world oil production will dive, soon and abruptly. It states that Peak Oil will disproportionally effect the U.S. Economy as compared to the rest of the world. It suggests mitigation starting immediately, however, it states that it will take 20 years at minimum to develop alternate fuels and reshape the economy and that under best circumstances there will be a 10 year recession in which oil and alternatives are virtually inaccessible.
A summery of the Hirsch report: http://www.acus.org/docs/051007-Hirsch_World_Oil_Production.pdf
Wikipedia does a good job getting main points: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report
In 1991 when Soviet Russia stopped sending oil to Cuba, Cuba experienced what is know as the special economic period in a time of peace. The effects on Cuba's economy mimic the effects that peak oil will have on the U.S. Economy. Before 1991 Cuba used more fertilizers and pesticides on its crops than the United States did. The special period shut down their agricultural system entirely. Cuba managed to survive by radically changing their agricultural system. Cuba now has one of the highest rates of organic and local farming as well as some of the only large scale permaculture Permaculture - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia in the world. This all occurred with minimal starvation.
Article on the special period: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Period
Documentary on the special period: http://www.powerofcommunity.org/cm/index.php
In the U.K. and Ireland where governments are, like the U.S., not responding to the threat of Peak Oil, communities have taken it upon themselves to establish transition towns. Transition towns are cities which have made efforts to be have selfsufficient energy, economy and agriculture. Their idea is that “Action by the government will be to late, action by the individual will be to little and action by a community might be enough soon enough”. The town of Tontes England is on track with its goals that will make it completely selfsuffecient by 2015. Similar steps have been begun in a couple places in the U.S. namely Colorado.
PBS show on Transition Towns: Transition Cities | Studio 12 | PBS Video
U.S. Transition Town website: Welcome | Transition US
Plan for the first Transition Town: http://transitionculture.org/wp-content/uploads/members/KinsaleEnergyDescentActionPlan.pdf
Transition Town Handbook: http://www.transitionnetwork.org/tags/primer
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